Vegas Odds: Chicago Bears vs Tennessee Titans |
The Chicago Bears come into their season opener against the Tennessee Titans this coming Sunday (Noon/FOX) favorites by 3.5 points with an over/under of 44.5 on DraftKings.
With Chicago’s elite defense and the playmakers they have on offense, as well as the decrease in offensive talent on the Titans' side with the loss of running back Derrick Henry, who has been the backbone of the organization since 2018, when he had his first 1,000-yard season, the Bears should cover the point spread and win by at least four points. Even with the Bears winning by at least four points, the under seems like the most favorable option in this game. Tennessee may be without wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins; without him, Calvin Risley would become their No. 1 receiver. The Titans opted to replace Henry with running back Tony Pollard, who has a very different skill set. Overall, their offense does not seem likely to put up a lot of points against Chicago’s elite defense. For the Bears, it will be rookie quarterback Caleb Williams's first NFL regular-season game. Therefore, if Chicago were to get a comfortable lead, it would be incredibly likely that they would start running the ball more to run down the clock and give the Heisman winner an easy introduction to the league. So, the point total does not seem very likely to get over 44. Speaking of Williams, his over/under for passing yards is 242.5. He is a bit of an unknown, given he has never played a full NFL game. Because this is his first game, even with the skill players around him, I would not expect Williams to throw the ball a lot. However, his receivers have the ability to make plays, particularly DJ Moore, who had 5.6 yards after catch per reception last season. While I do not think Williams will have 400 passing yards in his first game, I do think he will have over 242 yards and, therefore, would take the over. Moore is the top receiver for Chicago. Even if Chicago runs the ball more, Moore will get a lot of action. The over / under for his receiving yards is currently at 62.5. Over the course of his career, he has averaged 14.3 yards per reception. If he were to keep up that pace, he would only need five receptions to hit the over. That seems very likely, and I would thus choose Moore to hit the over. For someone who averaged 31.6 yards per game, tight end Cole Kmet has a rather low over/under at 22.5 receiving yards. Nonetheless, take the under. Something about September just does not click for Kmet. In the month of September, he averages 17.4 yards per game, over 10 yards lower than any other month. He also only averaged 1.8 receptions per game. This was before he had numerous elite players all around him. Therefore, Kmet goes under 22.5 receiving yards in the season opener. Single Game Parlay If you were to do a single-game parlay with these picks on DraftKings - with the Bears covering the spread, point total under, Moore going over 60 receiving yards, and Williams going over 250 passing yards (you cannot select Kmet going under in the parlay - a $10 bet would provide a $130 payout. These are relatively safe bets that have quite the return when you do the parlay.
