Vegas Odds: Bears vs Packers |
It is no surprise that the Chicago Bears are not favored to beat the Green Bay Packers this coming Sunday (Noon / FOX). According to DraftKings, the Bears are five-point underdogs against the Packers, with an over / under of 40.5 points.
Chicago’s offensive production has been disappointing to say the least. They have not scored a touchdown since their Hail Mary loss to the Washington Commanders on Sun. Oct. 27. The NFC North is the most difficult division in all of football, and this is Chicago’s first game against a division opponent this year. Given their performance, the Bears will not cover the spread against the Packers. Despite the Bears’ losing streak, their defense has not been giving up a lot of points. Once twice this season, Chicago’s defense allowed more than 20 points - against the Indianapolis Colts in week three and the Arizona Cardinals in week nine. The last time they faced Green Bay, the Bears only allowed 17 points. With all of that information, it does not appear the Packers will have a lot of scoring in this game, and since the Bears offense has not proven they can score, the under will hit in this game. It seems generous that DraftKings says rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is favored to throw for at least 175 yards, as the odds are -185. However, this prediction is bolder; Williams will have at least 200 passing yards. That should not be ambitious for an NFL quarterback. However, Williams only accomplished this once during Chicago’s three-game losing streak. He will accomplish this once again against the Packers. Williams has to throw to someone. He does not appear to have any consistent chemistry with any of his wide receivers. However, wide receiver DJ Moore leads the team in targets with 66 through the first nine games. Currently, he is averaging 44.2 yards per game. But, in the four times Moore has played against the Packers, he has averaged 85 yards per game. While I do not believe he will reach 85 yards in this matchup, it seems like a strong bet that Moore could hit 60 receiving yards. Last week against the New England Patriots, six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen led the team in receiving yards with 44 yards. In his 11-year career, Allen has only played against the Packers three times. In those games, he averages over 100 yards per game. There have not been very many 100-yard performances for Chicago wide receivers this year, and I do not believe Allen will do that in this game. However, it seems reasonable that he could hit 50 receiving yards. Who leads Chicago in total touchdowns this season, not counting passing touchdowns? It is a tie. Running back D’Andre Swift is in that tie, which is not surprising. However, the fact that running back Roschon Johnson also has four rushing touchdowns is surprising. The offense is in a blender with a new offensive coordinator going into this game. But, Johnson has proven to be a reliable goal-line running back, and there is no reason that should change with a change in play caller. Therefore, Johnson will score a touchdown in this game. Same Game Parlay In a same-game parlay where the Bears do not cover the spread (-110), the under hit (-112), Williams has at least 200 passing yards (+105), Moore has at least 60 receiving yards (+155), Allen has at least 50 receiving yards (+150), and Johnson scores a touchdown (+360), a $5 bet would have a payout of $2,380 according to DraftKings as the odds of that parlay hitting is +47500.
