2025 Chicago Cubs Season Projections: First Base |
We continue our season in projection series, and given how things have transpired in recent days, there could be more changes to this series soon. For now, we shift our focus to the left side of the diamond as we head down to first base. Looking back at the past few seasons, first base has been a black hole since Anthony Rizzo left in more ways than one.
Not only have they missed his bat, defense, and overall clubhouse presence, but they also missed his durability. Since the trade that sent him to the New York Yankees, the Cubs have gone with Frank Schwindel, Alfonso Rivas, Eric Hosmer, Trey Mancini, Matt Mervis, Jared Young, and Patrick Wisdom as some of the fill-in options. All of them had moments where they delivered, but more often than not, they were liabilities at best, as first base has been a struggle to fill for several seasons. Then came along Michael Busch as the Cubs traded for Busch before the start of the 2024 campaign, intending to make him their everyday first basemen. Even though it wasn't pretty all the time, Busch wound up being an outstanding player in his rookie season as he ranked near the top of the league in home runs by a rookie while also playing gold glove-caliber defense across the season's final five months. Should he finish spring healthy and ready to go, he will be the first player since Rizzo to open the season at first in back-to-back years. That is a massive accomplishment for him and the entire organization, as it appears they have found their first basemen of the future. Here are the first base predictions for 2025:
As mentioned above, Busch was not only a godsend last season, but some would make the case that he was as good if not better than advertised. Sure, his average hovered around .250 most of the season, but with 21 homers and 65 RBIs, Busch ranked third among rookies in homers, as the power is there for him to be an impact. What stood out the most with Busch last season was his ability to learn a new position and play it at a level some would consider gold-glove-worthy. Take away his horrendous first month of the season, and there is a good shot the Busch wins or comes close to winning a gold glove. That has to motivate him going forward, as the now second-year man is looking for a massive season. Prediction: 138 games, .261 average, 25 homers and 72 RBIs. While Busch may never hit at the level he did in the Minors, he can still put up good numbers. Knowing that he is not only the guy at first this season but will get a chance to hit against lefties until he proves otherwise, Busch will get plenty of at-bats this season, which is a good thing for him and the Cubs. The more at-bats he gets, the more likely he will do damage, as you saw him do plenty of damage a season ago. With Kyle Tucker now in the lineup, there is an excellent chance that Busch sees better pitches to hit, and if that happens, look out National League.Michael Busch
Jon Berti
While the Cubs appear to have solved the first base issue with Busch manning that position, there are concerns about what to do should he struggle against lefties or go down with a long-term injury. With Mervis now in Miami and Wisdom going to Korea, the Cubs are entering the 2025 season without a backup first baseman, and that has to be a concern.
That is where a prospect like Owen Caissie or Moises Ballesteros could come into play, as both are expected to see reps at first this season. However, as things currently stand, Jon Berti is the backup first baseman after working with Rizzo last season in New York. Listed as a middle infielder by trade, that will again be his primary role for the 2025 season, but it's hard to ignore the help Rizzo gave him a season ago.
Any time you learn from one of the best to do it at first base, you have to take something from it, and from all accounts, it does look like Berti has picked up enough from him to be a backup at first. Even if he plays sparingly at best at that position, having someone capable of filling in is huge for this team.
Prediction: 97 games, .256 average, two homers, 23 RBIs, and 11 steals
Even if most of his games come away from first base, Berti will see time all over the diamond. That is just what utility players do, and Berti is the definition of a utility player. A far cry from what Ben Zobrist gave this team, look for him to see action as much as possible, especially early in the season.
