Vegas odds for Bears-Saints |
Last week was a painful week for those who bet the over. However, last week was a high over. This week is a bit more realistic with an over / under at 41. With more internal drama for the Chicago Bears, it is a valid question as to whether they will be able to show up at this game ready to play. The line reflects that, with the New Orleans Saints favored to win this Sunday (Noon / CBS) by 7.5 points according to BetMGM.
First, rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent will be starting once again as Justin Fields is still unable to play with a dislocated thumb. In his first performance against a lower-level defense, the Bears put up 30 points. Against a better defense, they only mustered 13. New Orleans has allowed the second-lowest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks thus far this season. For the Saints, they have been a bit better overall with the return of running back Alvin Kamara from suspension. Wide receiver Rashid Shaheed also had the best game of his career last week with 153 receiving yards and a touchdown. Therefore, this is an offense that might be difficult to contain. What might help Chicago is the addition of edge rusher Montez Sweat right before the trade deadline. The Saints have allowed 21 sacks so far this season, which is about in the middle of the pack this season. However, Sweat has at least one sack in five of his eight games so far this season. Therefore, I would suggest taking the under on this game. While the Bears usually cover the over, if Sweat is able to make an impact like fans hope, this could turn into a lower-scoring game similar to the Saints’ matchup against the Packers or the Bears’ matchup against the Vikings. Further, with the turmoil of having a new running backs coach heading into this game, it is unclear how much Bagent will be able to lean on the run game. Still, this game should offer some interesting player props for Chicago players. First would be DJ Moore. According to DraftKings, Moore has an over / under on receiving yards of 60.5. Given that he essentially went the entire second half last week without a reception, look for Bagent to target Moore early and often. In addition, playing with the Carolina Panthers for five years, he is very familiar with the Saints overall. Going off of that, Moore should also be considered for an anytime scorer. Moore is a bit streaky when it comes to touchdowns and has now gone three games without a touchdown after having three straight games with a touchdown. But, he is going to be someone where there is a very specific point to get him the football. New Orleans has allowed 10 passing touchdowns this season, which is tied for No. 14 in the NFL. So, their team is potentially one to take advantage of. Tight end Cole Kmet is in an odd situation. After not getting a single target in the win against the Las Vegas Raiders, Kmet exploded with 10 receptions against the Chargers. According to BetMGM, Kmet has hit the over on receptions in six of his last seven games. For this game, the over / under is 3.5. There is an equal case to be made for the over or the under, but given his inconsistency, it seems the under might be a little safer for this matchup.
