Vegas Odds: Bears vs. Patriots |
Despite a two-game losing streak, the Chicago Bears are favored to beat the New England Patriots this coming Sunday (Noon / FOX). According to DraftKings, Chicago is favored to win by six points, while the over / under for this game is 38.5 points.
For a team that just lost by 20 points, winning by six seems likely, even for a team that has been outscored by 76 points so far this season. Chicago has two wins this season, where they won by at least three possessions, and two wins, where they won by one score. In their two lopsided victories, the offense was clicking. That has not been the case in the past two games. Therefore, the Bears will not win by over six points. The over / under of 38.5 points is lower for a normal NFL game. But for these two teams, it seems about right. Despite their performance last week, Chicago has one of the better defenses in the NFL. New England will be able to put up points on the ground using running back Rhamondre Stevenson and quarterback Drake Maye. The Bears have struggled to score but should be able to score more than nine points. Nonetheless, these two teams will not combine for over 38 points, although they will probably come pretty close. After decades of searching for a franchise quarterback, Chicago finally thought they had found their guy, namely, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. The Bears’ victories against the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars seemed to justify this belief. Then, everything fell apart after the bye week. Williams’ odds of throwing at least 250 passing yards is +270. Given he has not surpassed 250 passing yards since Oct. 6 against the Panthers, this makes sense. He may not surpass 250 passing yards in this game, either. However, he seems more likely to at least get to 225 passing yards, which he did against the Jacksonville Jaguars back in week six. The entire offense seems to be much better at home than on the road. While this may be more of a defense-controlled game, the offense still needs to put up some points which requires Williams throwing the ball downfield more than he has. Perhaps after some reflection on Chicago’s loss to the Arizona Cardinals, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will change the play-calling slightly to help Williams increase his efficiency and accuracy. Chicago’s loss to the Cardinals was not good for anyone on the Bears. However, the player with the best chance of rebounding is running back D’Andre Swift, who had at least 100 scrimmage yards in the last four games before having 82 scrimmage yards against Arizona. New England has allowed over 1,000 rushing yards through their first nine games of the season, and they have also given up 10 touchdowns to running backs. Therefore, not only will Swift have at least 100 rushing yards, but he will also score a touchdown in this game. Six-time Pro Bowl receiver Keenan Allen is not going to finish the season with a 50 percent catch rate. He has 17 targets over the last two games, also Williams has been looking his way. Since the Chicago offense is better at home, some of the passes they have not been connecting on will be complete in this game. Therefore, Allen will have at least 50 receiving yards. Same Game Parlay A same-game parlay with these picks is highly profitable. According to DraftKings, a $5 bet for Chicago not to cover the spread (-110), for the under to hit (-108), Williams to have at least 225 passing yards (+140), Swift to have at least 100 rushing yards (+245), Swift to score a touchdown (+110) and Allen to have at least 50 receiving yards (+130) would have a payout of $2,130. The #Bears are currently 6.5-point favorites against the Patriots, which would be the largest point spread in their favor in the Eberflus era.
Is just winning on Sunday good enough or do they have to dominate? pic.twitter.com/aWDHp3x3LN
