Commentary: Cubs should not go into firesale mode at trade deadline |
After an offseason filled with excitement and anticipation, the 2023 Chicago Cubs season hasn’t gone as planned for the Northsiders. The Cubs got off to a promising start that earned them the title as one of the more surprising teams in the league, only to have fallen off in their last 45 games.
Despite that, this team is still alive in the division, although only by a thread, as the organization has some serious decisions to make. Coming out of the all-star break, Chicago Cubs president Jed Hoyer emphasized that he wants to be a buyer at the deadline but also said they were in a wait-and-see pattern to see where things sit at the trade deadline. With a 10-game homestand and seven of those games against the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals, this homestand is the final stand for the Cubs as it could dictate what direction they choose to go. Although they are 43-49 and eight games out of first, there is still optimism that they can remain within five games of first by the end of the month, which could put them in line to be buyers. The question is, should they or should they not again go into a fire sale mode to build for the future? When you look at the team's current position, I find it very unlikely that they can win enough to make up all this ground, so buying doesn’t make a ton of sense unless they get on a huge roll. However, they are not in a position to sell everyone off either, as this team isn’t as bad as they were in the past. When you look at the Cubs current roster, guys like Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ recently signed three-year extensions beyond this season and will be a massive part of their future in the future. Hoerner has cooled off a bit lately, but he still leads the team in hits (96), RBIs (48) and is approaching 20 steals. On the other hand, Happ is going through one of his worst stretches in about two years, as his average has plummeted below .250. He has also seen his power take a drastic hit, although he ranks among the team leaders in OBP. Along with those two, you have Seiya Suzuki lined up for another three seasons and Dansby Swanson in the first year of his seven-year deal, as those are the four guys this team is expected to build around the next few years. Swanson and Hoerner mean more to this team than the others, as Suzuki and Happ have been underwhelming at best. Looking at the rest of this roster, the Cubs have some holes, with CF, 1B, and 3B being the most prominent question marks. The Cubs tried to go with Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini early in the season, but that backfired in their face. You then saw guys like Matt Mervis and Jared Young called up from AAA, and both struggled to find a rhythm in the majors. To fix the 1B spot, Cody Bellinger did see some time over there but has since moved back out to CF, where he continues to play great defense. Third base is another area the Cubs need to address as their current options are, let's say, terrible. Patrick Wisdom may have 30-homer potential, but when you are hitting .192 as a near-everyday player with a 41% strikeout rate, that will not get it done. Edwin Rios was added as a free agent but went just 2-29 with the Cubs this season and is stationed in Iowa. Miles Mastrobuoni is an ineffective option only here for injury purposes, while Christopher Morel needs more seasoning at third. You could make the case that Nick Madrigal played himself into an everyday role at 3B after tearing it up for the better part of a month, only to get hurt at the worst possible time. If the Cubs are going to trade pieces away, these are the positions they should focus on, and it wouldn’t take a firesale to fix these spots. When looking at the current roster, three names come to mind as potential trade options, and two make the most sense. Marcus Stroman has been the center of attention most of the season, and after putting together a team-high 10 wins right now and a 2.88 ERA, you can see why he is garnering all the attention he is. Stroman has a player option after this season, but he isn’t expected to exercise it making him an ideal trade candidate. The Cubs would undoubtedly get a nice haul for him and could look to add a corner infield prospect in return. Bellinger is another option and, at this point, the most likely player to be the first one dealt from this team. After a slow start to the season, Bellinger is starting to look like his MVP self and has been on a tear for the past few weeks. He has raised his average to .301 and has carried this team the past 10 days offensively. The New York Yankees are expected to go after him, which could give the Cubs another corner infield option in return. Should Bellinger get dealt, the Cubs will again have a hole in CF, but with Pete Crow-Armstrong approaching AAA soon, that hole wouldn’t last long. In the meantime, you have guys like Mike Tauchman and Morel that could hold it down, especially Morel, who is tied for first in homers with 15 despite playing in less than 60 games. While those two are the primary trade options for this team, don’t overlook Professor Kyle Hendricks, who has returned nicely from his season-ending shoulder injury a year ago. Despite his 3-4 record, Hendricks has been impressive and has posted an ERA in the 3.40 range thus far. Granted, his walk rate is slightly up, and his strikeout numbers are slightly down; he is still someone worth value, but not as much as the other big names on this roster. If Hendricks and Stroman are traded, the Cubs would be left with a rotation of Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Drew Smyly. Steele has been impressive all season, while Smyly got off to a great start before struggling late. Taillon recently turned in his best start but has been terrible, so the Cubs will need to add starter help. Hayden Wesneski seems like a lock to move back into the rotation after starting 11 games this season with Iowa. The next best option would be Caleb Kilian, who has struggled in his six career MLB starts, or Ben Brown, who has been very good with AAA Iowa. However you slice it, the Cubs roster will look a bit different in the coming weeks, but how different it looks depends on how this team plays. As a baseball fan, I never believe the Cubs should be sellers at any point. They have the third-biggest market in the game and should never be put in a rebuild situation. However, they need to retool, which could be the season to do that. They started the retooling process this offseason with some of their moves, but now it is time to finish it. Going into a complete firesale situation indicates that your first attempt at a rebuild failed and that more work is needed. However, if they can remain competitive over the next few weeks, the front office may decide that this season is a wash and it is time to focus on the future more than the present. Whatever this team chooses to do will happen in about 10 days, and it could determine the entire future of this front office and where this team goes from here.
