Vegas Odds: Bears vs Packers |
According to DraftKings, Chicago is favored to lose to the Green Bay Packers this Sunday (Noon / FOX) by 10 points in its final game of the season. The over / under is 41.5 despite Chicago’s last game having only nine points.
The last time the Bears played the Packers, it came down to the final play, as Chicago’s 49-yard field goal was blocked, giving Green Bay the one-point win. A lot has changed since that game. Chicago has a new head coach and an offensive coordinator. The play calling from interim head coach Thomas Brown has declined, as has the overall offensive productivity. Therefore, the Bears will not cover the spread in this game. In the first matchup between Green Bay and Chicago, they combined for 39 points. Last week, the Bears held the Seattle Seahawks to just six points, the fewest points they have scored in a game all season. The pass rush was a little better as the defense had their most sacks in over a month. However, in each of the three games before that performance, Chicago’s defense allowed over 30 points. The offense cannot be counted on to score a lot of points, but the defense should prevent this game from getting too out of hand. Therefore, the under will hit in this game, although the point total will be close to 41 points. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has been averaging 212.1 yards per game this season. When he faced the Green Bay defense the first time, he threw for slightly above his average of 231 yards. Chicago will most likely be behind in this game in the fourth quarter, forcing Williams to have to throw the ball more. Therefore, he will finish the game with at least 225 passing yards. Williams has been throwing the ball a lot to his top two receivers, DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Moore had 62 receiving yards the last time these teams faced each other. It was one of six games this season in which Moore had at least 60 receiving yards. Green Bay’s top cornerback, Jaire Alexander, will be out for this game, which should help Moore’s production. Therefore, he will have at least 60 receiving yards in this game. Allen has also been getting targets, although his production is more volatile than Moore’s. Against Green Bay, he only had 41 receiving yards. Since then, he has had three games with at least 80 receiving yards. Two of them have been within the past three weeks. Against the Detroit Lions two weeks ago, Allen had his best performance of the season with 141 yards and a touchdown. He has five games with over 10 targets this season, and against Green Bay, he will have another such performance. Therefore, Allen will have at least 80 receiving yards in this season finale. Although Chicago may not have found the end zone last week, they will score at least one touchdown against Green Bay, and Allen will be the one to find the end zone. He has the most touchdowns of anyone on the team, with seven, and five of those have come in the past six games. Allen has been finding the end zone more lately and will finish out the year with a touchdown. Same-Game Parlay With a same-game parlay (+25000) with Chicago not covering the spread (-110), the under-hitting (-110), Williams throwing for at least (+155), Moore having at least 60 receiving yards (+100), Allen having at least 80 receiving yards (+265) and Allen scoring a touchdown (+275), a $5 bet would have a payout of $1,255.
