Predicting the Chicago Cubs Starting Rotation for 2024 |
For once, the Cubs are dealing from a point of depth when it comes to their pitching staff — which makes their rotation decisions for 2024 more complicated than they have been in years past (which is a great problem to have).
So, let’s take a look at some of the candidates for the starting rotation in 2024. STARTING PITCHING LOCKS Justin Steele — Steele has emerged as a top starting pitcher in baseball. After being named to an All-Star team in 2023 and placing 4th in the NL Cy Young Award voting, Steele will be leaned on heavily at the top of the Cubs rotation. He has significantly improved in his three years in the pros so far, and taking another step in 2024 could go a long way for the Cubs returning to the postseason.
Shota Imanaga — thus far, the Cubs’ prized possession from the offseason. He will be a 30-year-old rookie in 2024, and many expect his success in Japan to translate immediately to MLB, primarily because of his fastball.
Kyle Hendricks — Hendricks is the lone survivor of the 2016 World Series team, and for good reason. He is aging but has been a model of consistency in the National League since his debut with the Cubs. He has always lacked velocity, so he can still be effective amidst the aging process.
Jameson Taillon — Taillon signed a 4-year, 68 million-dollar deal with the Cubs ahead of 2023. The Cubs are paying him too much money to bail on him, but he showed some significant signs of promise toward the end of last season despite his disastrous start. Taillon is undoubtedly a candidate for a bounce-back year in 2024.
COMPETING TO BE THE CUBS NO. 5 STARTER
Jordan Wicks (Prediction: Wicks win No. 5 spot) — The Cubs’ third-ranked pitching prospect debuted in 2023 and performed admirably for a team in the pennant race. He completed seven starts with a 4-1 record and a 4.41 ERA. However, that number is tainted by an outing that saw him give up six runs in less than two innings to start the season — in his other six starts, the Cubs were 5-1; he made three quality starts and never gave up more than three runs. Unless the Cubs make an additional move to address the top end of the starting rotation, Wicks is the favorite to be a part of the rotation.
Drew Smyly — Smyly has had an interesting pair of seasons in Chicago. The veteran was effective in 2022 and earned a contract with the Cubs for the 2023-2024 seasons. He started 2023 on fire. After a bad first outing, Smyly gave up either zero, one, or two runs for every start until May 28. His ERA was 2.60 through 10 starts. His next 13 starts saw his ERA climb up to 5.05, and he spent the rest of the season jockeying between the bullpen and the starting rotation. By the end of the season, it appeared Smyly had carved a role out for himself as a reliever. Smyly was 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 18 games out of the pen — and unless the Cubs’ minds have changed, I would anticipate he starts the season in the bullpen.
Javier Assad — Assad deserves more credit for how he pitched in 2023 for the Cubs. He was effective as a starter in the back half of the 2022 season and then dazzled for Team Mexico in the WBC last offseason. The Cubs started him in the majors and sent him down, but Assad returned to the big league club in May and stayed the rest of the season. All he did was eat innings. Whether they used him as a long reliever, a short reliever, or a starter, Assad was wildly effective. He made ten starts and 22 appearances out of the bullpen and combined for almost 110 innings. He had a 3.02 ERA as a starter and a 3.07 ERA as a reliever. The Cubs will likely keep Assad in a hybrid role, allowing him to showcase his durability more versatilely — but he has proven that he can pitch effectively in whatever role the Cubs carve out for him.
Hayden Wesneski — The Cubs acquired Wesneski from the Yankees in exchange for Scott Effross, and he made his presence felt quickly, earning the call-up in 2022. The arm talent jumps off the tape, but Wesneski has struggled with command early in his big league career. However, new manager Craig Counsell has singled him out in a few interviews as a player he is excited about. Like Assad, he spent 11 games as a starter and 23 as a reliever and was slightly more effective as a reliever, but I don’t think the Cubs are ready to bail on him as a starter just yet. If the Cubs want him as starting depth, they will start him in AAA, but if they want his arm in the big leagues immediately, he will start in the majors as a part of the bullpen. He is certainly a name to look out for as Spring Training approaches.
Caleb Kilian — When the Cubs traded Kris Bryant to the Giants in 2021, Kilian was a part of the package that returned to Chicago. He is still in the Cubs’ top-30 prospects but has struggled to earn a stay in the bigs. He has good stuff but has allowed 23 runs in just 16.2 innings, with as many walks and strikeouts (14). He could be a piece the Cubs try to move via trade and will almost certainly begin the season in Triple-A, but Kilian's name could be called when injuries or other factors pile up.
TOP PROSPECTS
Cade Horton — The hard-throwing right-hander was the Cubs' first-round draft pick in the 2022 draft and has quickly risen from low A to single A to Double-A, where he finished 2023 with a 1.33 ERA in six starts with the Tennessee Smokies. He is the Cubs' top pitching prospect and No. 2 in the system, trailing only Pete Crow-Armstrong, and is highly regarded among the organization. Many expect quick development to continue and believe Horton could pitch for the Cubs by mid-2024. At any rate, the Cubs view Horton as a potential difference-maker in their rotation for 2025 and beyond.
Ben Brown — Ben Brown was who the Cubs got in return for David Robertson from the Phillies at the 2022 trade deadline. Brown is a high-strikeout pitcher who has been a bit wild sometimes. The raw arm talent is impressive, as he only started two games in AA before getting promoted to Iowa. The strikeouts continued in Triple-A, but unfortunately, the walks came with it. They have used Brown both as a start and as a reliever — but whatever role he ultimately settles in with, we expect to see him make a difference on the big league club sooner rather than later.
Spring Training is less than a month away, and it will be interesting to see how the Cubs choose to deploy their starting pitching depth in Mesa and beyond.
