Cubs Prospect Profile: Caleb Kilian |
With Alfonsin Rosario getting dealt to Cleveland and Brennen Davis being DFAd, you knew there would be two openings in the Cubs' top 30 prospect list. Yahil Melendez was one of those two and was discussed last week. Caleb Kilian took up the other spot.
Yes, that Caleb Kilian, who has been in the Cubs organization since the Kris Bryant trade in 2021, is somehow still considered a prospect. The main reason for that is the MLB service time, as he hasn't logged enough innings not to be considered a prospect. Personally, when you look at how last season went, Frank Noland would've been the guy I moved into the top 30 rankings, but it's not my decision, so here we are. The San Francisco Giants drafted the former Texas Tech standout in the ninth round of the 2019 MLB Draft. From there, he steadily built his name in the Giants' system before being the centerpiece of the Cubs deal that sent Bryant to San Francisco in exchange for Kilian and Alexander Canario. Known for a big fastball and pinpoint control, Kilian dominated the Minors in his first two seasons. He posted a 7-4 record and a 2.42 ERA across 26 appearances. His control was impeccable, as he walked 15 and struck out 122. Then came the 2022 season, when Kilian got off to another great start, earning his first MLB call-up. Needless to say, things didn't go as planned. He made three appearances that season and posted an ERA north of 10, thus being sent down to the Minors again. That has been the theme for Kilian once he has reached the majors. He has pitched in eight career games and has an ERA of 9.22 in those games. That includes a 4.22 ERA this past season, as Kilian does seem to be figuring out how to pitch in the majors. Not only was his time in the Majors rough, but once he returned to the Minors in 2022, Kilian had a tough time finding his groove. He went 13-7 across the 2022-23 seasons but had an ERA in the mid 4.00s. That isn't what you are looking for from a frontline starter, and Kilian knew he had his work cut out for him this past season. After coming into Spring with a different mindset and completely wowing the Cubs with his increased stuff and velocity, Kilian suffered a severe shoulder injury, forcing him out of game action until June. Once he returned, it took him a while to get going, but in his seven minor league starts, Kilian was 2-0 with a 3.70 ERA, 17 walks, and 43 strikeouts. His performance over the final few weeks led to another late-season promotion where he appeared in three games and one start. Knowing what he has gone through the past few seasons and the current position the Cubs are in, it will be interesting to see how they handle Kilian from here on out. When you look at his stuff, Kilian was always a guy who lived in the 95-96 MPH range while offering a steady dose of breaking pitches. Since his injury, Kilian's velocity has dipped to 93 MPH as he has learned to pitch differently. Before his injury, Kilian was averaging better than 98 MPH in the Spring and topped 100 MPH several times. That alone gives the Cubs plenty of reason to believe he has something left in the tank, but the question is what kind of role he will take on. Ideally, you would love for him to become the starter everyone expected him to be, but that doesn't seem like an option anymore unless it is at the AAA level. As good as it would be to have him as a depth piece for starters, Kilian wants to be in the majors, and if the Cubs are going to be counting on him to help them this season, it may have to come from the bullpen. This bullpen blew 27 saves and 43 total games last season, so any positive addition would be welcomed. You have already seen Eli Morgan added to the mix along with Porter Hodge, Nate Pearson, Tyson Miller, Keegan Thompson, and potentially Jorge Lopez, as the Cubs are in a better position now than they were. Kilian could take on the role that Thompson took on when he began his MLB career as a bridge reliever/spot starter. Kilian is versatile enough to start some games when the Cubs need him, but he can also give you multiple innings out of the pen at any point. Hopefully, his velocity can get closer to the 95-96 MPH range that he was once at; otherwise, it could be a long journey for him to get back to elite prospect status.
