Commentary: Another sad Chicago collapse |
The Cubs, unfortunately, have become known over the years to collapse. Whether in the playoffs like 2003 and 1984 or the regular season like 1969 and 2019. Even more unfortunate for Cubs fans is they had to watch their team collapse in September again in 2023 — and now have to watch a bunch of former Cubs or almost Cubs tear it up in the postseason.
The Cubs had a strong season. They blew past their preseason projections, had three All-Stars, a few massive win streaks, and some stellar moments on the field. They will likely have players get votes in the Cy Young, MVP, and Manager of the Year award races. But the fact is, the Cubs should have made the playoffs. August was their best individual month in any season since they were a perennial playoff contender. According to the metrics, the Cubs had over a 90% chance to make the playoffs as deep as September 6th. However, finishing the season 7-15 and missing the playoffs by one game is undoubtedly frustrating. Call it a collapse, a choke, no matter how you color it; the Cubs should have been playing baseball into October, and the wheels fell off. And I feel it was because the Cubs have played high-leverage baseball since July. A team like the Atlanta Braves essentially coasted through the regular season. Whether you believe that led to their postseason demise, the Braves were so good that they were rarely tested in the regular season. Teams like the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers were similar; they were good enough to make the playoffs without an intense postseason race. But for the Cubs, their struggles in April and May created an uphill battle to reach the postseason. And with a team still amid a rebuild, the trade deadline is a massively important day for the organization. Midway through June, the Cubs were ten games below .500, and a third consecutive trade deadline sell-off seemed likely. Then, the next month had ridiculous turbulence. The Cubs won 9 out of 10 to firmly put the dial back toward buying at the trade deadline. Then the Cubs dropped 7 of 8 games, and the meter pointed at selling again. A 4-2 stretch before the All-Star break and then a 3-4 stretch out of the All-Star break didn’t do much but create agony. Every win seemed like the Cubs could breathe and hold on to their roster for a second. But then every loss made the desperation to win at the expense of losing their best players at the end of the month. Then, an 8-game winning streak heading into the trade deadline cemented the Cubs as buyers. But even once they bought, on July 31st, the Cubs were still five games back in the division and 4.5 games back in the Wild Card — they needed to keep fighting for their lives to decide to buy look good. So the Cubs rattled off an 18-9 month of August and won 5 out of their first 7 in September to make a return to the playoffs all the more likely. But all of a sudden, Adbert Alzolay, Jeimer Candelario, Nick Madrigal, Michael Fulmer, Marcus Stroman, Nico Hoerner, and Brad Boxberger are all missing time due to injury. Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Yan Gomes, and Cody Bellinger’s legs are starting to look tired. Justin Steele had a few below-average starts, and the rest of the rotation wasn’t able to pick him up. The injuries made the bullpen and lineups so thin that the healthy players were so tired they were ineffective — all of that leads to going 7-15 in your final 22 games. Most teams, especially this year’s Cubs, are not constructed to play high-leverage baseball for five months — and that is what was being asked of them. There were undoubtedly some strong points — and, of course, some prominent areas for improvement to avoid what happened in 2023. But for now, the 2023 Cubs are just another sad, typical Chicago Collapse.
